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Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk

Kahneman · Culture & Context, Measurement & Method · Econometrica · 1979 · Open access

The foundational paper introducing Prospect Theory — a descriptive model of decision-making under risk that systematically departs from expected utility theory. Key findings: losses loom larger than equivalent gains (loss aversion); people are risk-averse for gains but risk-seeking for losses; outcomes are evaluated relative to a reference point, not in absolute terms. Directly relevant to the calculus of voice: the asymmetric weighting of costs and benefits explains why speaking up feels riskier than staying silent even when the expected value favours voice.

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